ISMA revision of sugar production and balance sheet
–V. K. Jain
India’s sugar production for the 2025–26 season is estimated at around 324 lakh tons (gross), with nearly 31 lakh tons expected to be diverted towards ethanol. Net sugar production is projected at approximately 293 lakh tons, marking an increase of about 12% over last season.
With an opening stock of around 50 lakh tons, total sugar availability during the season is estimated at 343 lakh tons. Against domestic consumption of about 283 lakh tons, closing stocks are projected at nearly 53 lakh tons. This translates into a stock-to-consumption ratio of roughly 18–19%, a level considered comfortable for maintaining domestic supply stability without creating surplus pressure.
Although the Government of India has permitted sugar exports of up to 20 lakh metric tons (LMT), industry projections currently factor in exports of around 7 LMT. This cautious outlook reflects prevailing global market conditions, including depressed international prices, surplus availability in key producing countries, and limited arbitrage between domestic and export realizations after accounting for freight and logistics costs. In this context, ensuring stable domestic availability remains the priority.
Meanwhile, the Centre is likely to fix the March sugar sales quota in the range of 2.30–2.35 million tonnes, compared with 2.25 million tonnes in February. The higher release aligns with seasonal demand growth as summer consumption gains momentum, particularly from beverage and ice-cream manufacturers. March also has more days than February, which typically results in a proportionately higher monthly quota. The calibrated increase signals orderly supply management rather than an expansionary stance.
Despite improved production, industry margins remain under pressure due to high cane costs and subdued global prices. The industry has reiterated its appeal for a revision of the Minimum Selling Price (MSP) of sugar to ₹42 per kg and an increase in cane-based ethanol procurement prices. A timely revision would strengthen mill liquidity, support timely cane payments to farmers, and reinforce the long-term sustainability of the integrated sugar-ethanol ecosystem.
Overall, the sector reflects balanced fundamentals supported by improved output, measured exports, and calibrated domestic release management of all related parties ISMA NFCSF WISMA and Traders as also AIDA. Now the Government of India needs to look into and increase MSP and Ethonol prices as industry requested from long time.
The writer is a Executive Director of Deccan Group of Sugar Industries and Distilleries, Maharashtra
